Oбзор важнейших событий в экономике Украины в первой половине декабря 2018 года

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Масштабы грабежа постмайданной Украины — $70 млрд за 5 лет

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Приватизация

Компанию «Центрэнерго» — первый крупный объект, который власти Украины намерены продать в рамках т. н. «большой приватизации» — накануне конкурса (запланирован на 13 декабря) продолжают сотрясать скандалы. Представители компании «Баланс-Групп» (один из участников конкурса) утверждают, что за 3 последних года из «Центрэнерго» было выведено 14 млрд грн (0,5 млрд долл.). Причём, согласно словам заявителей, к этому были причастны буквально все: ближайшее окружение президента Украины Петра Порошенко, Нацкомиссия по регулированию энергетики и коммунальных услуг, чиновники Фонда госимущества. Также в «Баланс-групп» фактически обвинили Ernst&Young в фальсификации аудиторского отчёта по «Центрэнерго», поскольку в нём эти средства никак не фигурируют.

Народный депутат Украины Сергей Лещенко поясняет публике подтексты продажи «Центрэнерго»: "У нас на глазах готовится грандиозная афера. Под шумок военного положения, распугав всех инвесторов, Петр Порошенко собирается прикупить на подставных лиц последнюю государственную компанию по производству тепловой энергетики — «Центрэнерго»… Чтобы вы понимали, насколько это важно. «Центрэнерго» — это три больших тепловых электростанции, которые расположены в Киевской (Триполье), Харьковской и Донецкой областях. В масштабах Украины тепловая генерация (то есть электроэнергия, произведенная на ТЭС) — это 1/3 всей электрики Украины и 2/3 денег, выплаченных всем производителям электричества. Ринат Ахметов контролирует 75 процентов тепловой генерации. Остальные 25 — это как раз «Центрэнерго», — объясняет Лещенко.

Также депутат отмечает, что известный донецкий олигарх Ринат Ахметов покупал энергетические активы во времена президентства Виктора Януковича за адекватные деньги: за 150 млн долларов 25% «Днепрэнерго», а сейчас за 200 млн хотят купить 78% «Центрэнерго». По его словам, в итоге оплатят эту аферу все жители Украины, оплачивая завышенные счета за электроэнергию.

456 млн грн получила Украина от т. н. «малой» приватизации. По крайней мере, такую сумму назвал 7 декабря премьер-министр Украины Владимир Гройсман, выступая в Верховной раде во время часа вопросов к правительству. «От малой приватизации в этом году не 100 миллионов, а 456 миллионов… Что касается большой приватизации. В чём была проблема у предыдущих правительств? В том, что в законодательстве о приватизации было семь разных законов. Эти законы были абсолютно закрыты, и формировали закрытые клубы покупок за копейки государственных активов», — рассказал депутатам Гройсман.

Тут сразу 2 неточности. Да, они были закрыты, но работали. Тогда как у постмайданного правительства приватизация пока не работает ни со старым законом, ни с новым. Во-вторых, в самый удачный год во времена президентства Виктора Януковича удалось продать госимущества на сумму 1,5 млрд долл. Это совершенно фантастическая сумма, если исходить из нынешних реалий, примерно вдвое больше запланированных доходов от приватизации на текущий год.

Киевские власти упорно не желают признавать, что главная проблема отнюдь не в законе, а в том, что для инвестора «постмайданная Украина» и «Сомали» стали синонимами (также об этом см. комментарий бизнесмена Мохаммеда Захуре в разделе «Разное»).

Однако ещё более показательный обмен репликами по поводу приватизации у Гройсмана случился за 2 дня до выступления в парламенте. Народный депутат Михаил Головко, который присутствовал на заседании правительства, обвинил премьера в потворствовании мародёрству: «Руководитель Фонда госимущества [Виталий] Трубаров на приграничных территориях занимается мародерством — продает за бесценок государственные стратегические предприятия и объекты [в ряде областей Украины действует военное положение, и очевидно, что доход от приватизации там, мягко говоря, не слишком велик]».

В качестве примера депутат привёл комбинат «Северский» в Черниговской области возле границы с Россией, который оценивался почти в 60 млн грн. Однако 25% его акций были проданы в ходе малой приватизации за 38 тыс. грн — то есть примерно за 1/400 оценочной стоимости. В ответ премьер затянул всё ту же песню: «Раньше приватизация в Украине происходила по блату. А сегодня приватизация проводится через открытые аукционы». Так может лучше было и дальше «по блату» продавать?

Кстати, всё это характерно не только для малой приватизации. Та же «Центрэнерго» в 2013 году оценивалась в 1 млрд долл., а сегодня её выставляют на аукцион за 5,8 млрд грн, т. е. почти впятеро дешевле. «Такие объекты нельзя продавать в конце политического цикла, ведь тогда инвесторы закладывают в цену, которую они готовы платить, возможные риски, скажем, реприватизацию после смены власти. А в начале нового политического цикла таких рисков нет, и «Центрэнерго» в 2019—2020 годах можно было бы продать в 2−3 раза дороже, чем сейчас», — говорит экономист Александр Кущ в комментарии для «Страна.ua».

Впрочем, даже начало нового политического цикла не панацея. Эксперт полагает, что увеличить выручку удалось бы максимум до 500 млн долл. Министр экономического развития и торговли Украины Степан Кубив рассказал, что прибыль получают сегодня только 15% госпредприятий — около 500 из 3444.

Валюта

По состоянию на 11 декабря Нацбанк Украины установил официальный курс доллара на Украине на уровне 27,77 грн (-0,35 грн с 5 декабря). Откатились и остальные валюты. Евро — до 31,73 грн (-0,35 грн), рубль — до 0,419 грн (-0,004 грн). Курс «межбанка» 10 декабря остановился на уровне 27,72−27,74 грн (-0,31 грн). Торги завершились на более низком курсе, чем тот, с которого они стартовали (27,77−27,82 грн/долл.). А вот на «чёрном рынке» доллар стоит значительно дороже, чем на межбанке и у НБУ: 27,94−27,99 грн (-0,13 грн).

Казалось бы, гривна укрепляется — вопреки как сезонным, так и ситуативным факторам, в числе которых, конечно же, военное положение. Однако объяснение оказалось простым: аналитики совсем забыли о конкурсе по приватизации «Центрэнерго», намеченном на 13 декабря. Его стартовая стоимость (около 6 млрд грн) стала одной из причин притока валюты в страну: покупателям необходима гривна под уплату первоначальных взносов. К тому же наиболее активным покупателем валюты на прошлой неделе стал Нацбанк. Поэтому он и диктовал курс и на его предложение ориентировались остальные участники рынка.

Однако долго такая ситуация не продлится. «Полагаю, ниже 27,80 грн/долл. межбанк вряд ли пойдёт. Думаю, рынок постоит на этой отметке несколько дней, а затем снова пойдёт вверх. На него начнет давить гривна и котировки быстро вернутся сначала к 28,0 грн/долл., а затем и к 28,5 грн/долл. Не очень сильны сейчас позиции Украины в экспорте, да и выплаты по госдолгу 2019 году нам предстоят немалые», — прогнозирует в комментарии для UBR.ua председатель правления RwS Bank Владислав Кравец. На коридор в 28−28,5 грн/долл. в краткосрочной перспективе указывают и другие эксперты.

Те же покупатели «Центрэнерго» станут первой ласточкой этого разворота, когда начнут обратную операцию: скупку доллара и вывод своих средств за границу. Большинство компаний также предпочитают завершить сделки с куплей/продажей валюты в первой половине декабря. А раз так, то им необходима своего рода «гривневая подушка», которой хватит до второй половины января. Т. е. разворота курса логично ожидать уже ближе к 20-м числам месяца.

К тому же, помимо покупателей «Центрэнерго» и бизнеса, имеется уже изученный аналитиками фактор:

«…Традиционно в конце года государственный сектор вливает ликвидность в рынок. Это объективный фактор, потому что нужно выполнять государственный бюджет. Обычно все расходы, которые накопились, которые ранее не финансировались, дофинансируются в декабре. И уже два года подряд мы видим как гривневая ликвидность из государственного сектора перетекает в частную, а оттуда — на валютный рынок», — напоминает финансовый аналитик Виталий Шапран изданию finance.ua.

Если же говорить о прогнозе на зиму, то, по его мнению, курс вполне может дойти и до 29,5 грн/долл.:

«…[В январе-феврале] у нас завершается экспорт зерновых. Когда аграриям нечего экспортировать, мы обычно зависимы от экспорта металлургов. Мы видим, что было затруднение судоходства в Азовском море, которое влияет на наш экспортный металлургический потенциал. Если не будет никаких других эксцессов с металлургами, то коридор может до 29,5 грн/$ прийти в феврале. Я настроен, что девальвация будет, но она будет происходить медленно и планомерно».

В Нацбанке разработали методику ограничительных мер на валютном рынке. Методика довольно жёсткая — вплоть до запрета на хождение иностранной валюты внутри страны либо же лимитирования операций, принудительной продажи валюты государству и т. п. Однако вводить все эти ужасы НБУ не собирается — по крайней мере в ближайшее время. Сообщается, что методика разработана как комплекс кризисных мер и, по сути, не содержит ничего нового — это лишь упорядоченный перечень действий Нацбанка, применявшихся в последние годы.

МВФ            

Если по итогам 2017 года в отношениях Украины и МВФ был зафиксирован нулевой баланс (в 2016—2017 гг. Украина получила от Фонда столько же, сколько и вернула), то за неполный 2018 год баланс стал уже минусовым. Сумма полученных кредитов не изменилась (2 млрд долл.), тогда как вернула Украина почти вдвое больше — 3,9 млрд долл., пишет в Facebook экономист Виктор Скаршевский. И если в конце года МВФ всё-таки выделит Украине обещанный транш (1,5−2 млрд долл.), то баланс снова станет нулевым. Более того, соотношение сохранится и в будущем году.

«В 2019 году Украина должна выплатить МВФ $2,5 млрд, включая $280 млн процентов. Столько же, по новой программе сотрудничества с МВФ, Украина в 2019 году должна и получить от МВФ. Совпадение?» — задается вопросом эксперт. Скаршевский также уточняет, что 780 млн долл. из 3,9 млрд долл. средств — проценты по пользованию средствами Фонда.

Между тем формально количество барьеров между Киевом и кредитом МВФ уменьшается. 5 декабря на заседании правительства был одобрен меморандум о сотрудничестве с МВФ. Теперь Совет директоров Фонда соберётся на заседание, посвящённое Украине, 18 декабря, сообщает его пресс-служба. Т. о. до 15 декабря, как ранее прогнозировал глава Нацбанка Яков Смолий, МВФ уже никак не успеет перечислить первый транш.

Государственный бюджет на Украине теперь хотят планировать сразу на 3 года вперёд. Для этого Верховная рада даже приняла специальный закон. «Мы три года работали над тем, чтобы законодательно закрепить цивилизованный подход к бюджетному планированию в государстве. Это — главная реформа в сфере государственных финансов», — прокомментировала его принятие министр финансов Украины Оксана Маркарова. Впрочем, и до принятия закона в последние 2 года минфин планировал бюджет на 3 года вперёд, правда, неофициально.

Такое изменение поприветствовал постоянный представитель МВФ на Украине Йоста Люнгман. «Эффективно планировать развитие и государства, и города в пределах одного бюджетного года сложно, и переход к созданию бюджета на период до трех лет создает предпосылки для значительно более эффективного использования средств как государства, так и средств местного самоуправления», — заявил он во время поездки в Винницу.

Топливо

По состоянию на вечер 10 декабря за литр А-95 автомобилисты Украины платили в среднем 30,72 грн (-0,79 грн с 5 декабря, +2,32 грн с начала года), за литр А-92 — 29,62 грн (-0,93 грн с 5 декабря, +2,69 грн с начала года). Дизтопливо продолжает вести себя нестандартно. Оно всё ещё стоит дороже А-92 и держит марку наиболее подорожавшего за год вида топлива: 30,46 грн (-0,79 грн с 5 декабря, +5,17 грн с начала года). Автогаз подешевел до 14,97 грн/л (-0,55 грн). Последний раз автогаз стоил ниже 15 грн/л ещё в конце сентября.

Если доллару эксперты пророчат дальнейший рост без всяких скидок на временное укрепление гривны, то с топливом всё иначе. Обозреватели рынка настроены достаточно оптимистично. «На сегодняшний день, с учетом ситуации на мировом топливном рынке и отечественном валютном рынке, потенциал для снижения стоимости горючего вырос. По нашим расчетам литр бензина и дизтоплива экономически обоснованно может подешеветь на 3 гривны от нынешнего ценового уровня. Правда, несмотря на все предпосылки и экономические расчеты, нефтетрейдеры по-прежнему не спешат снижать цены на своих заправках. Но я думаю, что никуда они не денутся и стоимость горючего в Украине будет падать. По-прежнему прогнозирую, что до нового года стоимость литра бензина А-95 и дизтоплива достигнет или опустится ниже отметки в 30 гривен», — цитирует издание «Факты» директора консалтинговой группы «А-95» Сергея Куюна.

Минус 3 гривны к текущему ценнику — это очень много. Это означает, что цены на бензин фактически вернутся к значениям начала 2018 года. Правда, Сергей Куюн не зря делает оговорку относительно валютного рынка Украины: стабильностью он балует нечасто. Как мы уже знаем от финансовых аналитиков, до конца года доллар может подорожать на 0,5 грн.

Дальше расчёт простой, ведь все зависимости уже известны. +1 грн к курсу доллара даёт +0,7 грн к литру топлива с лагом в 2 недели. Т. е. курс 28,5 к концу года даст +0,35 грн. Однако поскольку на ситуацию влияют сразу 2 рынка (нефти и валюты), то и топливо будет не дорожать, а дешеветь — просто менее активно, ведь уменьшается возможный потенциал для снижения цен.

Ну, а дальше — зависит от курса гривны. Ранее озвученные прогнозы говорят о том, что доллар может подорожать до 30 грн. Это даёт примерно 1,5 грн к ценнику на АЗС. Однако этот фактор встречается с фактором дешевеющей нефти — и вот уже от 3 грн потенциала Куюна остаётся половина. Причем в реальности это будет происходить не одномоментно

Директор спецпроектов НТЦ «Психея» Геннадий Рябцев уверен, что задел может быть ещё более значительным, чем 3 грн на литре. «Реальная цена барреля нефти — 40 долл., поэтому даже нынешние 66 долл./барр. после недавних 80 долл. — это дорого. Несмотря на усилия стран-экспортеров нефти ограничить её добычу, предложение на рынке больше спроса», — утверждает он в интервью для издания «Сегодня». Однако при этом эксперт воздерживается от прогнозирования стоимости литра топлива в 2019 году.   

Разное

Один из крупнейших игроков на рынке украинской недвижимости Мохаммад Захур в интервью изданию Delo кратко охарактеризовал нынешнее состояние экономики Украины: «…Я больше собственных денег в Украине не вкладываю. Не хочу больше рисковать. Поэтому сейчас ищу для этой гостиницы [речь о строительстве отеля Renaissance в Киеве, начавшемся ещё во второй половине 2000-х, Захур вложил в проект 90 млн долл. — ред] банковское финансирование и партнерство. На окончание строительства еще нужно от $25 млн и выше. Пока ведем переговоры с иностранными инвесторами, но при слове «Украина» все они испаряются».

Кроме того, бизнесмен публично утверждает, что команда Порошенко занимается не реформами, а исключительно их имитацией: «…Коррупция и рейдерство в Украине сегодня никуда не исчезли. Даже ЕВА и посольство США в Украине в своих докладах отмечают, что синдром войны на украинской территории лишь на пятом месте [в рейтинге Foreign Investor Survey 2018]. А значит, Порошенко и его команда уже не могут ссылаться на фактор войны, мотивируя этим медленный ход реформ в стране».

В 2019—2020 гг. Украина вернёт кредиторам 12 млрд долл. Об этом в интервью для Vox Ukraine заявил глава НБУ Яков Смолий. «Мы подсчитали, сколько было за пять лет потерь и упущенных возможностей для Украины. Эта сумма составляет 70 млрд долларов, она включает одноразовые потери или недополученные поступления средств, а также пятилетний итог потерянных поступлений для государственных финансов от тех сфер, которые мы посчитали… 70 млрд долларов — это большая сумма, это больше, чем весь украинский внешний долг [на самом деле, чуть меньше, по последним данным, внешний долг Украины — 74,3 млрд долл. — ред.]. На самом деле, это хорошая база для сравнения. Мы фактически можем говорить о том, что проблему, которую мы каждый год видим, — обслуживание внешнего долга — эту проблему можно было бы решить, если бы самые большие схемы, на которые мы посмотрели, были закрыты», — заявил в ходе пресс-конференции исполнительный директор Центра экономической стратегии Глеб Вышлинский.

Инфляция на Украине к концу года ускорилась. Если в сентябре 2018-го к сентябрю 2017-го она равнялась 8,9%, октябрь 2018/октябрь 2017 — 9,5%, то в ноябре добралась до 10%. Согласно данным Госстата Украины, суточные расходы на еду у среднего украинца не превышают 64 гривен (150 руб.). Почти 34% украинцев имеют доход ниже официального прожиточного минимума. Национальный банк Украины и Народный банк Китая возобновили еще на три года двусторонний договор о валютном свопе с максимальной суммой линии на уровне 15 млрд юаней или 62 млрд гривен, что эквивалентно порядка 2,2 млрд долл. США.

«Китай — это второй крупнейший торговый партнер Украины по товарообороту, а роль юаня в международной торговле растет. Доступ к средствам, полученным по договору, будет способствовать осуществлению торговли между Украиной и Китаем в юанях. Договор будет способствовать дальнейшему экономическому сотрудничеству между нашими двумя странами», — прокомментировал подписание договора глава Нацбанка Украины Яков Смолий.

 


Об авторе
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Автор: Андрей Стеценко

Источник: regnum.ru

Добавил:   venjamin.tolstonog


Дата публикации: 07.01.2019. Просмотров: 754

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