В ООН составили карту вымирания человечества: Россия - в первой десятке (СПИСОК)

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В ООН составили карту вымирания человечества: Россия - в первой десятке (СПИСОК) [Ne2a]  


Ученые ООН составили карту вымирания человечества, согласно которой Россия вошла в десятку стран, которые вымрут раньше всех. По их прогнозам, это произойдет с нашей страной в 2888 году, то есть уже через 800 лет. Украина, для сравнения, вымрет на 400 лет позже. США - в самой далекой перспективе - в стотысячных годах.

Есть, по мнению ученых, страны, которые не вымрут вообще. Это вся Африка, Ближний Восток, за исключением Ирана, страны Средней Азии и Закавказья, Афганистан, Пакистан, Индия, Монголия, Индонезия, Филиппины, а также большинство стран Латинской Америки, кроме Бразилии и Чили. ООН регулярно проводит подобные исследования, оформляя их в виде Демографических прогнозов (UN World Population Prospects). Данное - ревизия 2010 года.
Карта, где разные регионы соответственно прогнозу вымирания обозначены разными цветами, опубликована в октябрьском номере российского Esquire, который, в свою очередь, ссылается на The Economist.
В статье поясняется, что прогноз строится на основе так называемого чистого коэффициента воспроизводства населения (КВН) - среднего числа девочек, рожденных за всю жизнь средней женщиной в той или иной стране и доживших до конца репродуктивного периода при данных уровнях рождаемости и смертности.
Примерно у 120 стран мира этот коэффициент больше единицы, то есть с каждым поколением растет не просто число жителей, но число девочек, и вымирание такой стране не грозит. Большая часть этих стран - развивающиеся, c общим высоким уровнем рождаемости, однако есть и вполне развитые: Ирландия, Израиль, Новая Зеландия.
В 73 странах КВН меньше единицы, то есть рано или поздно женщин в такой стране не останется, а самовоспроизводиться без них мужчины никак не смогут. Путем многоступенчатых вычислений ученые определили для каждой страны дату, когда умрет последняя женщина и самовоспроизводство населения прекратится.
Так, применительно к России, было установлено, что последняя девочка родится через 30 поколений. Учитывая, что средний детородный возраст в нашей стране составляет 26,81 года, произойдет это через 804 года, а учитывая среднюю продолжительность жизни российских женщин (74,03 года), последняя из них вместе с надеждами на воспроизводство умрет в 2888 году, поясняет журнал.
По результатам исследования, 10 стран, которые вымрут раньше всех, следующие: Макао, Гонконг, Босния и Герцеговина, Россия, Мальта, Словакия, Сингапур, Румыния, Венгрия, Македония.
10 стран, которые вымрут позже всех: США, Виргинские острова, Сент-Люсия, Тунис, Франция, Южная Корея, Азербайджан, Австралия, Антильские острова, Норвегия.
Как отмечает NEWSru.ua, известный социобиолог, профессор Гарвардского университета Эдвард Уилсон утверждает, что резервы биосферы весьма ограничены, а главное - их невозможно пополнить. Это касается в основном запасов воды и еды. По его словам, максимум, который сможет выдержать наша планета, - это население в 10 миллиардов человек.
Что касается конкретно России, то ученые давно пугают скорой перспективой ее вымирания. А недавно американское ЦРУ опровергло оптимистичные данные Росстата, вычислив, что темп сокращения российского населения почти в 15 раз выше, чем указано в официальных сводках этой федеральной службы.


Дата публикации: 24.01.2012
Добавил: ava  oxana.sher
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