Российский автопром вступит в схватку с китайским

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Экономика России в условиях санкционного давления Запада  

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Авторынок России переживает структурные сдвиги: рынок новых машин в России усох за этот год в два раза

В ноябре на один из крупнейших брендов отечественного автопрома приходилось почти 47% продаж вместо примерно 20% годом ранее, сообщает Комитет автопроизводителей Ассоциации европейского бизнеса (АЕБ). Это связано с обвалом продаж почти всех новых автомобилей, за исключением ряда китайских брендов, заявивших о себе на усохшем вдвое рынке РФ. По оценкам экспертов, параллельный импорт пока сопровождается издержками: есть проблемы с ценами и сомнения по поводу гарантии. Меняется и рынок автострахования. Эксперты теперь не исключают появления страхования машин на случай поломки как аналога гарантии.

Продажи новых легковых и легких коммерческих автомобилей в РФ сократились в ноябре почти на 62% к тому же месяцу 2021-го. Продано всего около 46 тыс. машин против 121 тыс. годом ранее, сообщает АЕБ. По итогам января–ноября падение в годовом сопоставлении составило примерно 61%. В целом за этот период продано почти 550 тыс. новых авто, тогда как годом ранее показатель превышал 1,4 млн.

В ноябре этого года на один из крупнейших брендов отечественного автопрома пришлось почти 47% продаж, следует из материалов АЕБ. Для сравнения: в ноябре 2021-го или доковидного 2019-го его доля была лишь около 20%. По итогам января–ноября эта доля выросла до 30% с прошлогодних 23%. Судя по отчетам АЕБ, она увеличивается из-за общего усыхания рынка: в штуках продажи отечественных авто тоже в основном просели в годовом сопоставлении. 

Немного другие цифры в аналитическом обзоре ПСБ (разница объясняется тем, что АЕБ учитывает теперь не все бренды): в ноябре продажи новых легковых автомобилей в РФ уменьшились почти на 49% год к году, до 51,5 тыс. машин. Такие данные приводит и «Автостат». При этом, по сообщению ПСБ, в отчетном периоде практически все марки показали снижение, не включая, однако, ряд российских и китайских брендов. 

В целом падение продаж аналитики ПСБ объясняют ужесточением выдачи автокредитов (банковский скоринг), снижением платежеспособности населения, приостановкой деятельности ряда зарубежных компаний, дефицитом компонентов и автомобилей. 

В дальнейшем ситуация на авторынке будет оставаться сложной: по итогам года ожидается двукратное падение продаж. «Наш консервативный сценарий предполагает снижение продаж новых легковых и легких коммерческих авто в 2022-м на 50–55% год к году, – сообщают в ПСБ. – Восстановление может начаться не раньше января-февраля следующего года, когда производство будет адаптировано под текущие условия и увеличатся продажи автомобилей 2021–2022 годов выпуска, в том числе в рамках параллельного импорта». А с параллельным импортом автомобилей, судя по оценкам опрошенных «НГ» экспертов, пока определенные проблемы. 

«Развернувшийся с лета параллельный импорт частично вернул уверенность рынку, но по-своему. Он сбавил градус цен на остатки гарантийных машин, до этого дорожавших из-за непонятного будущего уходящих марок. Также он позволил покупателям выбирать из моделей и комплектаций, ранее не представленных у нас», – сообщили в пресс-службе «Открытие Авто». 

Между тем в некоторых случаях параллельный импорт «даже поднял цены», из-за этого цены на вторичном рынке тоже пошли вверх, уточнили в компании. «Аналогичная ситуация с запчастями. Серый импорт просто дал возможность заказывать разные позиции, но по новым ценам, в которые добавился интерес третьих лиц», – пояснили в пресс-службе. 

«Официальная гарантия на завезенные по серым схемам автомобили отсутствует, – сообщает пресс-служба «Открытие Авто». – Если новый автомобиль покупают у юридического лица – дилера, то на него распространяется гарантия как на технически сложный товар в рамках закона «О защите прав потребителя». Дилер может обойти требования закона, добавив к документам о продаже дополнительный договор. В нем будут прописаны особые условия на гарантию для конкретного автомобиля – обычно год». 

Но, по уточнению аналитиков компании, пока сложно сказать, какой будет практика на втором годе гарантии. «Если это не обговаривается отдельно, по умолчанию гарантия равна двум годам с момента передачи покупателю транспортного средства или с даты его производства. Теоретически любые претензии по машине надо направлять ее производителю, но если он ушел из страны, разбираться придется с продавцом товара, то есть с дилером», – пояснили в пресс-службе. 

Объемы параллельного импорта зависят от того, с какими брендами дилер сотрудничал изначально, говорит гендиректор группы компаний «Автодом» Андрей Ольховский. «У дилеров, продающих авто премиум-сегмента, параллельный импорт может занимать до 50% всех продаж. В массовом сегменте параллельный импорт занимает пока небольшую долю», – сообщил он. 

При этом, по словам эксперта, «гарантийный сервис малодоступен»: «Сервисы connected большинства брендов могут отключиться до конца года». Имеются в виду «подключенные сервисы», которые собирают данные об автомобиле и его использовании и передают их в систему. 

«К тому же отсутствуют правильные гарантии оформления таможенных процедур», – сообщил Ольховский. В данном случае он имеет в виду гарантию того, что автомобиль, ввезенный по параллельному импорту, растаможен правильно и что не будет проблем с постановкой на учет в РФ. 

Между тем хоть структура рынка и меняется, говорить о смене предпочтений у потребителей пока рано, следует из пояснений руководителя департамента Финансового университета при правительстве Александра Цыганова. «Изменения пока не привели к превалированию китайских производителей, сборки из их машинокомплектов автомобилей в России или частных перегонщиков европейских, американских и японских моделей, – пояснил эксперт. – Пока развилка еще не пройдена, процесс перестройки еще не остановился». 

Потребители, по словам Цыганова, пока опасаются покупать китайские автомобили, которые, судя по всему, продаются дороже, чем в Китае, а кто-то остается приверженцем привычных марок, на которых проездил 15–25 лет. «Покупка машин с пробегом или поставленных без полноценной гарантии по параллельному импорту – альтернатива, но не все готовы нести риски их поломки в первые месяцы использования», – уточнил он. «Что касается цен на автомобили, то многое зависит от курса валют на следующий год, – продолжил Ольховский. – Ожидается, что стоимость автомобилей изменится примерно на 10% – при условии, что внешние факторы не зададут другой тренд». 

Напомним, президент Владимир Путин поручил правительству «принять меры по повышению доступности для граждан РФ легковых автомобилей». Также поручено «обеспечить постоянный контроль за формированием цен на автотранспортные средства в целях недопущения их необоснованного повышения». 

Претерпевает изменения и рынок автострахования. «Так, уже учтено подорожание запчастей, что привело к коррекции справочников по выплатам ОСАГО и Каско, изменению тарифов. В ОСАГО четко проявились регионы, где стало существенно выгоднее получать выплату деньгами, а после ремонтироваться в гараже (в первую очередь Дальний Восток с праворульными машинами), а по Каско многим пришлось доплачивать, чтобы привести страховую сумму в соответствие с подорожанием автомобилей», – сообщил Цыганов.

Также, по его словам, все активнее обсуждается вопрос об использовании бывших в употреблении и восстановленных запчастей, что позволяет выдержать разумные сроки ремонта. Ведь многие уже понимают, что ремонт по гарантии стал затруднителен, соответственно не все теперь настаивают на ремонте именно у официального дилера.

Наконец, судя по комментарию Цыганова, не исключено появление страхования машин на случай поломки: «Аналог гарантии, но от страховой компании». По его словам, это потребует предстраховой экспертизы и сотрудничества перегонщика, дилера, страховой компании, «что вполне реально реализовать в текущих условиях».

Автор Анастасия Башкатова, заместитель заведующего отделом экономики "Независимой газеты"

Источник - https://www.ng.ru/economics/2022-12-06/1_8608_cars.html 


Дата публикации: 13.12.2022
Добавил:   venjamin.tolstonog
Просмотров: 258
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