Мировая революция-XXI: экономический уклад меняется, доминант остаётся

Тема
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Новая промышленная революция  

Новая книга учёного и научного редактора Financial Times Питера Марша «Новая промышленная революция: потребители, глобализация и конец массового производства» говорит, что экономическая модель, в которой американцы и европейцы покупают китайские товары на деньги, занятые у всего мира, догорает на глазах всей планеты. На повестке дня – новая модель, которая сулит развитым странам блестящее экономическое будущее.

То, что написал Питер Марш про новый экономический цикл, правильно, но на самом деле всё гораздо сложнее.

Есть два драйвера возвращения производства в развитые страны. Первый – это сланцевые углеводороды, т. е. переход на дешёвую и доступную энергетику. США здесь лидируют и будут лидировать на обозримый период. Соединённые Штаты превращаются в экспортёра энергии. Кроме того, США – это основной потребитель алюминия и высококачественных сталей, и эти вещи целесообразно возвращать в США. Кстати, в себестоимости алюминиевого производства доля затрат на рабочую силу очень невелика, и какой смысл тогда производить это в Китае?

В США с началом кризиса стала распространяться работа гарвардских ученых, которая утверждает, что теория о создании «экономики знаний» путём переноса производства в третий мир бессмысленна. Дело в том, что после ухода производства уходят и инженеры, и фундаментальные учёные, и знания уходят в третий мир. Обамовской администрацией это практически официально признано, и правительство финансирует возвращение целого ряда производств. Например, развивают производство литиевых батарей, что важно для электромобилей. Они приглашают корейских специалистов и рабочих, посылают американцев учиться в Корею, на это идут миллиардные капиталовложения. Это – точечная вещь, но у Америки очень гибкая экономика. Экономика надорвана долгами и диспропорциями, но бизнес очень здоров, и он может вытащить Америку, если ему не мешать.

Теперь переходим ко второму драйверу. Это роботизация. Изменяется сама идеология промышленного производства. Раньше роботы делали то, что не может делать человек, а теперь человек будет делать то, что не может делать робот. Когда производство роботов станет массовой индустрией, дешёвая рабочая сила окажется не нужна. Вопрос лишь в том, станет ли дешёвым сам робот. Здесь мы возвращаемся к примеру со сланцевым газом. В течение 200 лет считалось, что это – запредельно дорогая технология, которая никогда не станет конкурентной по сравнению с традиционными методами. Но маленькие американские венчурные компании, которые создали эти технологии добычи сланцевого газа, либо превратились в корпорации мирового уровня, либо ликвидно реализовали свои стартапы. То же самое касается и роботизации. Происходит процесс перехода на массовую индустриальную базу. Это ведет к обвальному удешевлению производства.

Между прочим, есть страна, которая не нуждается в реиндустриализации. Это Германия, которая является примером того, что теории о постиндустриальной экономике являются чушью. Другое дело, что её макроэкономический баланс может быть капитально подорван ее экономическими сателлитами. Значительную часть положительного немецкого баланса составляют дутые активы этих стран.

Как видим, вызовы есть, но есть и шансы, а больше всего шансов у Соединённых Штатов.

Правда, здесь есть одно «но». Платой за шанс являются деглобализация и отказ Америки от современной глобальной финансовой системы. Она объективно оказывается не нужна! Но надо понять, что операторами этой системы являются конкретные лица, а себе они очень даже нужны. Это не просто лица, но огромное количество людей, структуры, это машина, которая самовоспроизводится.

Некоторые называют это борьбой между мировым финансовым сектором и национальной экономикой США. У них получается антагонистический интерес. Кроме того, современная геополитика – это геополитика нефти, и она оказывается не нужна при появлении дешёвых источников энергии, а Соединённые Штаты становятся энергоизбыточной страной.

Сейчас, впервые за новую историю, со сменой экономического уклада может сохраниться тот же доминант, но он станет локальным лидером, потому что никакое технологическое развитие не позволяет сохранить нынешние макроэкономические диспропорции. 

Михаил Леонтьев

Источник - http://www.odnako.org/blogs/show_20506/


Дата публикации: 01.09.2012
Добавил: ava  v3704207
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 고화질스포츠중계 | 22.02.2024, 07:09 #
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안전놀이터 ❣️, 메이저사이트 ❣️, 먹튀검증 ❣️ 및 추천 토토친구는 여러분들의 안전한 베팅문화 정착을 위해 먹튀사이트 정보 공유 및 안전하게 이용하실 수 있는 안전놀이터를 추천하여 드리고 있습니다. https://toto79.io/
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안전놀이터 ❣️, 메이저사이트 ❣️, 먹튀검증 ❣️ 및 추천 토토친구는 여러분들의 안전한 베팅문화 정착을 위해 먹튀사이트 정보 공유 및 안전하게 이용하실 수 있는 안전놀이터를 추천하여 드리고 있습니다. https://toto79.io/
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 먹튀검증 | 26.02.2024, 09:11 #
안전놀이터 ❣️, 메이저사이트 ❣️, 먹튀검증 ❣️ 및 추천 토토친구는 여러분들의 안전한 베팅문화 정착을 위해 먹튀사이트 정보 공유 및 안전하게 이용하실 수 있는 안전놀이터를 추천하여 드리고 있습니다. https://toto79.io/
 먹튀검증 | 27.02.2024, 09:56 #
No.1 먹튀검증 사이트, 먹튀사이트, 검증사이트, 토토사이트, 안전사이트, 메이저사이트, 안전놀이터 정보를 제공하고 있습니다. 먹튀해방으로 여러분들의 자산을 지켜 드리겠습니다. 먹튀검증 전문 커뮤니티 먹튀클린만 믿으세요!! https://mtclean.blog/
 먹튀검증사이트 | 28.02.2024, 10:49 #
No.1 먹튀검증 사이트, 먹튀사이트, 검증사이트, 토토사이트, 안전사이트, 메이저사이트, 안전놀이터 정보를 제공하고 있습니다. 먹튀해방으로 여러분들의 자산을 지켜 드리겠습니다. 먹튀검증 전문 커뮤니티 먹튀클린만 믿으세요!! https://mtclean.blog/
 먹튀검증커뮤니티 | 29.02.2024, 02:12 #
안전놀이터 ❣️, 메이저사이트 ❣️, 먹튀검증 ❣️ 및 추천 토토친구는 여러분들의 안전한 베팅문화 정착을 위해 먹튀사이트 정보 공유 및 안전하게 이용하실 수 있는 안전놀이터를 추천하여 드리고 있습니다. 먹튀검증커뮤니티
 베트남밤문화 | 29.02.2024, 09:16 #
베트남 남성전용 커뮤니티❣️ 베트남 하이에나 에서 베트남 밤문화를 추천하여 드립니다. 베트남 가라오케, 베트남 VIP마사지, 베트남 이발관, 베트남 황제투어 남자라면 꼭 한번은 경험 해 봐야할 화끈한 밤문화로 모시겠습니다. https://vn-hyena.com/
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하노이 꼭 가봐야 할 베스트 업소 추천 안내 및 예약, 하노이 밤문화 에 대해서 정리해 드립니다. 하노이 가라오케, 하노이 마사지, 하노이 풍선바, 하노이 밤문화를 제대로 즐기시기 바랍니다. 하노이 밤문화 베스트 업소 요약 베스트 업소 추천 및 정리 https://hanoi-nightlife.com/
 먹튀검증 | 01.03.2024, 08:51 #
베트남 남성전용 커뮤니티❣️ 베트남 하이에나 에서 베트남 밤문화를 추천하여 드립니다. 베트남 가라오케, 베트남 VIP마사지, 베트남 이발관, 베트남 황제투어 남자라면 꼭 한번은 경험 해 봐야할 화끈한 밤문화로 모시겠습니다. https://vn-hyena.com/
 먹튀검증사이트 | 01.03.2024, 09:58 #
하노이 꼭 가봐야 할 베스트 업소 추천 안내 및 예약, 하노이 밤문화 에 대해서 정리해 드립니다. 하노이 가라오케, 하노이 마사지, 하노이 풍선바, 하노이 밤문화를 제대로 즐기시기 바랍니다. 하노이 밤문화 베스트 업소 요약 베스트 업소 추천 및 정리 https://hanoi-nightlife.com/
 안전놀이터추천 | 05.03.2024, 10:32 #
먹튀검증이 완료된 안전놀이터 추천 및 목록을 제공하여 드립니다. 먹튀대피소에서 추천해 드리는 안전놀이터를 먹튀대피소의 가입코드를 통하여 사용하시는 경우 먹튀사고 발생시 100% 전액 보장을 지원하여 드리고 있습니다. https://mtshelter.com/
 먹튀검증사이트 | 06.03.2024, 10:31 #
No.1 먹튀검증 사이트, 먹튀사이트, 검증사이트, 토토사이트, 안전사이트, 메이저사이트, 안전놀이터 정보를 제공하고 있습니다. 먹튀해방으로 여러분들의 자산을 지켜 드리겠습니다. 먹튀검증 전문 커뮤니티 먹튀클린만 믿으세요!! https://mtclean.blog/
 먹튀검증사이트 | 07.03.2024, 03:48 #
No.1 먹튀검증 사이트, 먹튀사이트, 검증사이트, 토토사이트, 안전사이트, 메이저사이트, 안전놀이터 정보를 제공하고 있습니다. 먹튀해방으로 여러분들의 자산을 지켜 드리겠습니다. 먹튀검증 전문 커뮤니티 먹튀클린만 믿으세요!! https://mtclean.blog/
 에볼루션바카라 | 08.03.2024, 06:33 #
The architecture of the temple is a blend of various influences, reflecting the rich cultural history of the region.
추천드리는 카지노사이트 를 확인해보세요.
Additionally, layering the jacket 에볼루션카지노  engineered to revolutionize industrial automation.
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 카지노사이트 | 12.03.2024, 09:58 #
최고의 카지노사이트 추천 목록 2024년을 맞이하여 최고의 카지노 경험을 제공하기 위해 신뢰할 수 있는 카지노 사이트를 추천합니다. 보안, 고객 서비스, 게임 다양성, 사용자 경험을 고려하여 엄선된 사이트입니다. https://casinoboan.com/
 카지노 | 15.03.2024, 06:05 #
최고의 카지노사이트 추천 목록 카지노 세계는 끊임없이 변화하고 발전하고 있습니다. 최고의 온라인 카지노 사이트를 찾는 것은 쉽지 않습니다. 2024년을 맞이하여 최고의 카지노 경험을 제공하기 위해 신뢰할 수 있는 프리미엄 카지노 사이트 상위 20개를 추천합니다. 보안, 고객 서비스, 게임 다양성, 사용자 경험을 고려하여 엄선된 사이트입니다. 이제 언제 어디서나 안전하고 편리하게 카지노 게임을 즐기실 수 있습니다. https://casinoboan.com/
 온라인카지노 | 16.03.2024, 03:34 #
최고의 카지노사이트 추천 목록 2024년을 맞이하여 최고의 카지노 경험을 제공하기 위해 신뢰할 수 있는 카지노 사이트를 추천합니다. 보안, 고객 서비스, 게임 다양성, 사용자 경험을 고려하여 엄선된 사이트입다. https://casinoboan.com/
 카지노사이트 | 18.03.2024, 07:26 #
최고의 카지노사이트 추천 목록 2024년을 맞이하여 최고의 카지노 경험을 제공하기 위해 신뢰할 수 있는 카지노 사이트를 추천합니다. 보안, 고객 서비스, 게임 다양성, 사용자 경험을 고려하여 엄선된 사이트입다. https://casinoboan.com/
 코인지갑개발 | 20.03.2024, 08:31 #
코인 지갑 개발 블록체인 프로젝트의 모든것 코인라인 입니다. 코인, 지갑개발, 거래소개발, 마케팅, 백서 , 웹사이트 https://coinline.co.kr/
 카지노사이트 | 21.03.2024, 09:15 #
온라인 카지노 커뮤니티 온카허브 입니다. 온카허브는 카지노 먹튀 사이트들과 안전한 카지노 사이트 정보를 공유하고 있습니다. 카지노 먹튀검증 전문팀을 자체적으로 운영함으로써 철저한 검증을 진행하고 있습니다. https://oncahub24.io/
 온라인카지노 | 27.03.2024, 09:13 #
온라인 카지노 커뮤니티 온카허브 입니다. 온카허브는 카지노 먹튀 사이트들과 안전한 카지노 사이트 정보를 공유하고 있습니다. 카지노 먹튀검증 전문팀을 자체적으로 운영함으로써 철저한 검증을 진행하고 있습니다.
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