Германия не Греция, кризис в ней похоронит ЕС

Тема
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Кризис Европы  

Кризис кризису рознь. Когда он затрагивает периферию мира (Грецию, Португалию, Украину, Беларусь, Казахстан или Узбекистан), чуткие, как сейсмологические датчики землетрясения, фондовые индексы бирж, могут даже не заметить негоразды в подобных странах. Совершенно иное дело - мощный экономический кризис в США, Китае или Германии (основе Евросоюза).

Они главные производители и основные потребители сырья, поставляемого с различных уголков мира, представляющие собой своеобразные сердечные клапаны всей мировой финансовой системы в мире. Перестанет работать какой то из них - в экономике повторится ситуация, как в медицине, вплоть до сердечному приступа или летального исхода современного мирового порядка.

После водоворота кризиса 2008г. экономисты возлагали основные надежды именно на подобные бастионы, как Германию и Китай, называя их локомотивами (соответственно, в Европе и Азии), способных в планетарном масштабе вытащить мир из мутной пучины рецессии. Но вера во всесилие этих стран, как и любая иная вера в чудо, рано или поздно должна была пройти проверку временем. Весь 2012 год прошел в опасениях, связанных с замедлением роста китайской экономики. И вот теперь уже пошли разговоры о том, что кризис добрался и до Германии.

Неужели "железобетонная" немецкая экономическая машина начала давать трещины? Или, все-таки, опасения сильно преувеличены? Остается только строить предположения

Разумеется, истинное положение дел в экономике Германии есть тайна за семью печатями. Как и в случае с китайской или, например, американской экономикой, данная тема представляет собой скорее политический вопрос. Слишком многие сферы сегодняшнего глобального мира напрямую зависят от этих показателей.

Поэтому правду знают только посвященные, а всем остальным остается лишь строить гипотезы, подтверждая свои предположения той долей информации, которой они располагают. В связи с чем абсолютно неудивительно, что существуют две полярные точки зрения на возможность кризиса в германской экономике.

Немецкой экономике ничего не угрожает!?

В этом твердо уверена значительная часть экспертного сообщества. Эта уверенность основывается на следующих факторах:

1.Германия уже пережила кризис, и теперь ее экономику ожидает только положительный тренд развития. Так считает целый ряд очень авторитетных экспертов, в том числе и члены экономического совета при правительстве в Берлине. Недавно советники федерального канцлера по экономическим вопросам выпустили ежегодный отчет о состоянии дел в ФРГ и всем Евросоюзе. Так вот, эти пять уважаемых профессоров уверены, что дно рецессии Германия уже успешно проходит, и, начиная с 2013 года, начнется неудержимый рост.

2.Рост ВВП Германии продолжается даже в настоящее, не самое благоприятное время. Со времен печальной памяти 2009 года, когда ВВП страны сократился на 5,1%, падения показателей не наблюдалось. В 2010 году уже прослеживался рост на 4,2%, в 2011-м на 3%, в текущем году также ожидается пусть небольшой, но рост - 0,8–0,9%.

3. Бюджетный дефицит Германии не угрожает, в связи с рекордными цифрами налоговых сборов. В связи с рекордными показателями в данной области федеральный бюджет вполне может быть закрыт с дефицитом всего в 0,1%. А следующий бюджет вполне может оказаться вообще бездефицитным.
4. Безработица Германии постоянно сокращается, что является лучшим показателем стабилизации и поступательного роста. В нынешнем году число занятых немцев составило рекордные 41,6 млн человек. Такое количество людей никогда еще в истории Германии одновременно не работало. В ноябре глава агентства Франк Вайзе признал, что все больше отраслей экономики, среди них такие капиталоемкие, как строительство, транспорт, торговля, увеличивают число работников, и этот процесс становится все более устойчивым.

5. Покупательная способность немцев растет. В течение последних месяцев в стране наблюдался существенный рост внутреннего спроса. В период с 2007 по первый квартал 2012 года внутренний спрос вырос на 2%.

Устойчивость германской экономики имеет под собой целый ряд причин

Убеждены оптимисты. Они считают, что эффективность немецкой модели является абсолютно закономерной, ибо в нее заложен значительный запас прочности:

- ставка на мощную промышленность, успешная ее модернизация,

- отказ от деиндустриализации,

- отказ от переноса производства в Азию,

- специализация в мировом масштабе на производстве товаров функционально-статусного спроса,

- ориентация на экспорт. Германский экспорт в январе-августе 2012 года вырос по сравнению с аналогичными показателями прошлого года на 5,5 процента и составил более 734 миллиардов евро;

- приоритет качества, безопасности, экономичности, дизайна, эргономики,

- доступ к относительно дешевым ресурсам,

- высокий уровень научно-технической базы, что обусловило своевременное, а поэтому эффективное внедрение инноваций;

- "свой курс" в преодолении кризисных явлений в экономике. Берлин не стал снижать высокое налоговое бремя, приложив все усилия к сохранению высокого уровня занятости. Рост потребительского спроса внутри страны стал приоритетом для правительства, отодвинув на задний план традиционную сильную сторону, т.е. экспорт. Так немцам удалось избежать самых распространенных рисков глобального кризиса.

Экономика Германии переживает не лучшие времена!?

Так тоже считают очень многие, причем не менее авторитетные, специалисты:

1. Прогноз Европейской комиссии относительно темпов роста немецкой экономики в будущем году выглядит крайне неутешительно. Ожидается, что он будет минимум вдвое меньше, чем сейчас. А показатели роста во всем Евросоюзе в 2013 году сократятся с сегодняшнего1% до 0,1%. Пожалуй, не стоит объяснять, что первую скрипку во всех общеевропейских показателях играет именно Германия.
2. Бундесбанк в своем ежемесячном докладе также указал на печальную тенденцию: "Усилились признаки того, что за ощутимым увеличением экономического роста в третьем квартале 2012 года в последнем квартале года последует стагнация или даже небольшое снижение валового внутреннего продукта". Власти Германии также были вынуждены изменить свой прогноз относительно роста экономики в 2013 году в сторону сокращения. Предыдущий прогноз предполагал рост ВВП на 1,6%, в то время, как последний говорит только об 1% роста.

3. Министр экономики ФРГ Филипп Реслер недавно заявил, что кризис, продолжающийся уже три года подряд, значительно уменьшил доверие инвесторов к стране. Но при этом немецкая экономика, по мнению министра, сохраняет значительный запас прочности.

4. Объем государственного долга Германии (которая помогает содержать еще несколько стран-должников) составляет 80,3% ВВП. Данный показатель существенно превышает норму стабильности, установленную Маастрихтским договором.

5. В преддверии парламентских выборов (намечены на сентябрь 2013 года) правительство раздает массу популистских обещаний, которые в ближайшем будущем неминуемо больно ударят по бюджету страны. Например, обязательство выплачивать по 150 евро в месяц семьям с детьми, отказывающимся от услуг государственных детских садов. Или поднять размер минимальных пенсий до 688 евро в месяц. Или, по требованию профсоюзов, включить обязательный пункт про компенсацию за неполную рабочую неделю в договор о найме сотрудников. Список можно продолжать…

Kакие же факторы в состоянии сделать тренд развития германской экономики негативным?

Эти факторы следующие:

1.Долговой кризис в зоне евро. Как известно, проблемы стран-должников ЕС решают только несколько государств. Это, в первую очередь, Германия и Франция, а также Бенилюкс, Австрия и Финляндия. При таком соотношении львиная доля участия во всевозможных программах спасения (Греции, потом Испании, потом Португалии и дальше по списку) ложиться на плечи немецкой экономики. А это, ни много, ни мало, почти 30% от астрономических сумм, выделяемых руководством ЕС.
2. Немецкое правительство постоянно занято решением общеевропейских проблем, до решения своих собственных у него часто руки не доходят.

3.Мощная бюрократическая машина Евросоюза постоянно контролирует и давит немецких функционеров, часто связывая их по рукам и ногам. Например, это касается энергетической сферы. Европейская энергетическая хартия запрещает производителю и продавцу энергоносителей владеть еще и путями доставки топлива потребителю. Это правило направлено исключительно против российского Газпрома, а именно он является крупнейшим партнером немецких промышленников. Более того, немецкие концерны владеют значительной долей акций "Северного потока". А в Брюсселе им постоянно говорят о том, что это нехорошо.

4.Зависимость Германии от экспорта традиционно остается на очень высоком уровне, начиная от газа из России и заканчивая нефтью из арабских стран (Ливия, Сирия, Саудовская Аравия, Кувейт и т.д.), причем торговля с еврозоной все еще остается для Берлина приоритетной. Следовательно, любые потрясения, на которые последнее время так богата экономическая жизнь мира и Европы, неминуемо ударят и по Германии.

Источник - Онлайн-журнал «Биржевой лидер»

http://www.profi-forex.org/novosti-mira/novosti-evropy/entry1008143560.html


Дата публикации: 20.12.2012
Добавил: ava  v3704207
Просмотров: 1648
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